← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1399397
Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 93.0%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability93.0%
Bid / ask / mid93.0¢ / 95.0¢ / 94.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.1%)
Change 24h+5.50pt
Change 7d+81.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 95% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$3,893
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$338 / $574
Imbalance95% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.78
RSI (14, hourly)58.3
Realized vol 7d4.63pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.