← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1399398
Will there be between 125m and 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability5.0%
Bid / ask / mid0.0¢ / 1.3¢ / 0.7¢
Spread1.3¢ (200.0%)
Change 24h-2.45pt
Change 7d-7.85pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,570
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $76
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.70
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.28pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.