← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1450214
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.6%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability2.6%
Bid / ask / mid2.4¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.7¢
Spread0.6¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h-0.90pt
Change 7d-17.80pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$51,815
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,410 / $4,431
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.21
RSI (14, hourly)65.4
Realized vol 7d1.48pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.