← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1469734
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.1%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability5.1%
Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 5.0¢ / 4.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (50.0%)
Change 24h+0.25pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$140
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$255 / $244
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.98
RSI (14, hourly)42.1
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h+0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 3h.
Time to resolve54d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.