← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1469737
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 91.0%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability91.0%
Bid / ask / mid90.6¢ / 91.0¢ / 90.8¢
Spread0.4¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h-0.40pt
Change 7d+5.15pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 71/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,696
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$19,756 / $25,598
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score70.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.09
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.44pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 3h.
Time to resolve54d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.