← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1571986
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.3%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability98.3%
Bid / ask / mid97.9¢ / 99.0¢ / 98.5¢
Spread1.1¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h-0.20pt
Change 7d-0.70pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 82% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$274
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$650 / $1,180
Imbalance82% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.11
RSI (14, hourly)37.5
Realized vol 7d0.23pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 144d 14h.
Time to resolve144d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.