← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1662423
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 85.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability85.0%
Bid / ask / mid84.0¢ / 86.0¢ / 85.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+24.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 37% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$22,296
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,964 / $15,140
Imbalance37% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.96
RSI (14, hourly)43.8
Realized vol 7d2.04pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (55)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.