← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1662429
Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.9%, down 3.8pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability10.9%
Bid / ask / mid9.7¢ / 10.8¢ / 10.3¢
Spread1.1¢ (10.7%)
Change 24h-3.80pt
Change 7d+4.40pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,112
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$232 / $218
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 68 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.35
RSI (14, hourly)67.9
Realized vol 7d1.08pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (55)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.