← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1811265
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 33.0%, down 10.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability33.0%
Bid / ask / mid32.0¢ / 33.0¢ / 32.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.1%)
Change 24h-10.00pt
Change 7d-4.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 62/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 28% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$207,271
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$23,355 / $11,320
Imbalance28% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score62.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.80
RSI (14, hourly)62.5
Realized vol 7d2.88pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 16h.
Time to resolve54d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.