← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1861361
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.1%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability98.1%
Bid / ask / mid96.6¢ / 97.8¢ / 97.2¢
Spread1.2¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d+4.35pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 94/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$19
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$919 / $157,910
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score94.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.92
RSI (14, hourly)47.8
Realized vol 7d0.29pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.