← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2069847
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, up 7.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.1¢ / 19.2¢ / 19.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h+7.40pt
Change 7d+15.60pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,868
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$177 / $1,036
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 98 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.54
RSI (14, hourly)98.1
Realized vol 7d0.76pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 15h.
Time to resolve85d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.