← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2069849
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 81.6%, down 5.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability81.6%
Bid / ask / mid81.1¢ / 81.2¢ / 81.2¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h-5.10pt
Change 7d-13.90pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,476
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,385 / $2,683
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 13 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.20
RSI (14, hourly)12.8
Realized vol 7d0.73pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 15h.
Time to resolve85d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.