← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2109881
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 76.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability76.0%
Bid / ask / mid69.0¢ / 73.0¢ / 71.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (5.6%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-6.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,998
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$141 / $606
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 13 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.06
RSI (14, hourly)12.5
Realized vol 7d0.86pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.