← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2116493

Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

99.1% implied · bid 98.9¢ · ask 99.3¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 99.3%, up 37.6pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.

Implied probability99.3%

Bid / ask / mid98.9¢ / 99.3¢ / 99.1¢

Spread0.4¢ (0.4%)

Change 24h+37.60pt

Change 7d+32.60pt

Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 85/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 37% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$281,464

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,578 / $66,677

Imbalance37% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score85.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.9σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean4.93

RSI (14, hourly)80.3

Realized vol 7d2.65pt

Change 1h+0.75pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 16h.

Time to resolve0d 16h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules riskmedium (35)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.