← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2116494
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.2%, down 37.1pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability1.2%
Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 1.2¢ / 0.9¢
Spread0.6¢ (66.7%)
Change 24h-37.10pt
Change 7d-32.10pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$210,611
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$91 / $312
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 20 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.29
RSI (14, hourly)20.0
Realized vol 7d2.75pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.