← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2116541
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, down 35.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h-35.00pt
Change 7d-28.50pt
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$31,762
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$236 / $75
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.92
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d2.91pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.