← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2116890
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.5%, down 40.9pt over 24h, on a 1.5¢ spread.
Implied probability1.5%
Bid / ask / mid0.3¢ / 1.8¢ / 1.1¢
Spread1.5¢ (142.9%)
Change 24h-40.95pt
Change 7d-40.95pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,995
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$83 / $51
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 5.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-5.11
RSI (14, hourly)25.1
Realized vol 7d4.16pt
Change 1h-0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.