← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2116891
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.1%, up 63.4pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability99.1%
Bid / ask / mid99.1¢ / 99.6¢ / 99.4¢
Spread0.5¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h+63.35pt
Change 7d+66.85pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 75/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$10,222
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$825 / $53,783
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score74.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 77 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.11
RSI (14, hourly)77.0
Realized vol 7d5.69pt
Change 1h+2.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.