← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2117123
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.0%, up 39.5pt over 24h, on a 3.9¢ spread.
Implied probability98.0%
Bid / ask / mid94.7¢ / 98.6¢ / 96.7¢
Spread3.9¢ (4.0%)
Change 24h+39.55pt
Change 7d+50.55pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 74% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$10,213
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$399 / $1,131
Imbalance74% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score31.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 79 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.93
RSI (14, hourly)78.6
Realized vol 7d2.28pt
Change 1h+0.75pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.