← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2117124
Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.4%, down 34.4pt over 24h, on a 2.7¢ spread.
Implied probability3.4%
Bid / ask / mid0.7¢ / 3.4¢ / 2.1¢
Spread2.7¢ (131.7%)
Change 24h-34.45pt
Change 7d-41.95pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,799
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5 / $12
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 32 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.31
RSI (14, hourly)31.6
Realized vol 7d2.16pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.