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Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.2%, up 5.4pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability98.2%
Bid / ask / mid98.6¢ / 99.0¢ / 98.8¢
Spread0.4¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h+5.45pt
Change 7d+30.80pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 84% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$13,743
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$811 / $4,100
Imbalance84% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 74 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.46
RSI (14, hourly)73.7
Realized vol 7d1.22pt
Change 1h+0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.