← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2118145
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.0%, up 33.0pt over 24h, on a 1.8¢ spread.
Implied probability97.0%
Bid / ask / mid96.1¢ / 97.9¢ / 97.0¢
Spread1.8¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h+33.00pt
Change 7d+34.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 59% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$12,881
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$513 / $14,366
Imbalance59% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 85 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.07
RSI (14, hourly)84.6
Realized vol 7d2.79pt
Change 1h+0.65pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.