← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2127312
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 34.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability34.0%
Bid / ask / mid33.0¢ / 34.0¢ / 33.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.0%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,406
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,082 / $13,269
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score55.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.79
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 351d 14h.
Time to resolve351d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.