← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2127313
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.8%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability15.8%
Bid / ask / mid15.5¢ / 15.6¢ / 15.6¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.6%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+0.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,275
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,307 / $3,058
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score53.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 81 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.51
RSI (14, hourly)81.3
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 351d 14h.
Time to resolve351d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.