← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2127316
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.3%, up 1.3pt over 24h, on a 2.6¢ spread.
Implied probability3.3%
Bid / ask / mid1.5¢ / 4.1¢ / 2.8¢
Spread2.6¢ (92.9%)
Change 24h+1.25pt
Change 7d+1.80pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,297
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$80 / $720
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.73
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d0.24pt
Change 1h+1.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 351d 14h.
Time to resolve351d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.