← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2128397
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.2%, down 14.5pt over 24h, on a 2.4¢ spread.
Implied probability12.2%
Bid / ask / mid11.5¢ / 13.9¢ / 12.7¢
Spread2.4¢ (18.9%)
Change 24h-14.45pt
Change 7d-2.30pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$17,692
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$90 / $233
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score38.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.33
RSI (14, hourly)32.7
Realized vol 7d2.20pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.