← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2128400
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.5%, down 7.1pt over 24h, on a 8.2¢ spread.
Implied probability6.5%
Bid / ask / mid4.3¢ / 12.5¢ / 8.4¢
Spread8.2¢ (97.6%)
Change 24h-7.10pt
Change 7d-16.60pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 9/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,864
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10 / $24
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score9.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.74
RSI (14, hourly)42.4
Realized vol 7d2.31pt
Change 1h+7.95pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.