← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2128408
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 72.0%, up 23.0pt over 24h, on a 15.0¢ spread.
Implied probability72.0%
Bid / ask / mid65.0¢ / 80.0¢ / 72.5¢
Spread15.0¢ (20.7%)
Change 24h+23.00pt
Change 7d+16.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$12,552
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.51
RSI (14, hourly)66.9
Realized vol 7d3.38pt
Change 1h-5.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.