← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2128413
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.7%, down 2.6pt over 24h, on a 1.7¢ spread.
Implied probability3.7%
Bid / ask / mid1.8¢ / 3.5¢ / 2.6¢
Spread1.7¢ (64.2%)
Change 24h-2.60pt
Change 7d-2.65pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$12,373
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$147 / $622
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.27
RSI (14, hourly)49.4
Realized vol 7d1.19pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 15h.
Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.