← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2412744
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.2%, up 3.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability17.2%
Bid / ask / mid17.1¢ / 17.2¢ / 17.2¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.6%)
Change 24h+3.30pt
Change 7d+12.25pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$41,865
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,159 / $559
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 32 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.45
RSI (14, hourly)32.2
Realized vol 7d0.92pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 16h.
Time to resolve419d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.