← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2412745
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.2%, up 11.9pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability31.2%
Bid / ask / mid31.1¢ / 31.2¢ / 31.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h+11.90pt
Change 7d+19.85pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$30,307
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,913 / $3,007
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 76 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.87
RSI (14, hourly)76.5
Realized vol 7d1.13pt
Change 1h-0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 16h.
Time to resolve419d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.