← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2412747
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7d-15.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$32,811
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,356 / $1,834
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.49
RSI (14, hourly)53.3
Realized vol 7d1.35pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 16h.
Time to resolve419d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.