← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2413330
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 87.0%, up 16.7pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability87.0%
Bid / ask / mid87.1¢ / 87.7¢ / 87.4¢
Spread0.6¢ (0.7%)
Change 24h+16.70pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 82/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$72,726
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,954 / $61,145
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score82.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 26 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.03
RSI (14, hourly)26.4
Realized vol 7d2.43pt
Change 1h-0.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 16h.
Time to resolve54d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.