← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2431412
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 64.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability64.0%
Bid / ask / mid63.0¢ / 64.0¢ / 63.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d+8.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 60/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,451
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$24,951 / $5,549
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score60.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.87
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.66pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 3h.
Time to resolve54d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.