← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2591184
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.7%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability96.7%
Bid / ask / mid96.6¢ / 98.0¢ / 97.3¢
Spread1.4¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h+1.05pt
Change 7d+15.80pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 63% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,347
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,631 / $28,684
Imbalance63% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score58.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 78 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.85
RSI (14, hourly)77.8
Realized vol 7d1.60pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.