← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2663602
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (20.0%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-4.50pt
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$130
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$513 / $1,261
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.45
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.32pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.