← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2668006
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability9.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-6.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$12,150
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,283 / $1,434
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.50
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.65pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.