← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2734383
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.8%, down 1.9pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.8%
Bid / ask / mid1.7¢ / 2.8¢ / 2.3¢
Spread1.1¢ (48.9%)
Change 24h-1.85pt
Change 7d-4.75pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,408
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$139 / $76
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.71
RSI (14, hourly)52.4
Realized vol 7d0.24pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.