← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2737233
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 22.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability22.0%
Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 23.0¢ / 22.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (9.1%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-7.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,392
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,379 / $9,461
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.03
RSI (14, hourly)16.7
Realized vol 7d0.36pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.