← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2750319
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 57.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability57.0%
Bid / ask / mid56.0¢ / 58.0¢ / 57.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.5%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-5.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,534
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,628 / $2,769
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.83
RSI (14, hourly)16.7
Realized vol 7d1.59pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.