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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2818594

Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?

29.0% implied · bid 27.0¢ · ask 31.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 31.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability31.0%
Bid / ask / mid27.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 29.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (13.8%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d+7.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$31
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,178 / $1,061
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score31.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 40 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.79
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d0.79pt
Change 1h-0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 54d 15h.

Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.