← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2831106
Pacifica FDV above $100M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.5%, up 8.0pt over 24h, on a 6.6¢ spread.
Implied probability20.5%
Bid / ask / mid11.5¢ / 18.1¢ / 14.8¢
Spread6.6¢ (44.6%)
Change 24h+8.00pt
Change 7d+6.35pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 17/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$896
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$56 / $24
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score17.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 6.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean6.55
RSI (14, hourly)75.2
Realized vol 7d0.84pt
Change 1h-1.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.