← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2831107
Pacifica FDV above $200M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.9%, up 5.9pt over 24h, on a 4.6¢ spread.
Implied probability7.9%
Bid / ask / mid10.6¢ / 15.2¢ / 12.9¢
Spread4.6¢ (35.7%)
Change 24h+5.85pt
Change 7d+3.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 27/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$176
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$122 / $38
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score27.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.45
RSI (14, hourly)60.6
Realized vol 7d2.33pt
Change 1h-1.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.