← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2977681
Will Inde Navarrette be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 67.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability67.0%
Bid / ask / mid65.0¢ / 72.0¢ / 68.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (10.2%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+8.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$332
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4 / $51
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 39 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.91
RSI (14, hourly)38.7
Realized vol 7d0.79pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 144d 14h.
Time to resolve144d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.