← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3013350
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$36,063
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,570 / $7,129
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.18
RSI (14, hourly)42.9
Realized vol 7d0.79pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 16h.
Time to resolve54d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.