← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3128886
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 41.2%, down 1.2pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability41.2%
Bid / ask / mid40.9¢ / 41.2¢ / 41.0¢
Spread0.3¢ (0.7%)
Change 24h-1.20pt
Change 7d-3.20pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 94/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 32% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$43,694
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$45,121 / $45,222
Imbalance32% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score93.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 57 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.31
RSI (14, hourly)56.9
Realized vol 7d0.97pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 16h.
Time to resolve54d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.