← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3190125
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.1%, down 1.8pt over 24h, on a 1.7¢ spread.
Implied probability4.1%
Bid / ask / mid2.5¢ / 4.2¢ / 3.4¢
Spread1.7¢ (50.7%)
Change 24h-1.85pt
Change 7d-5.80pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,463
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$265 / $166
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.58
RSI (14, hourly)46.6
Realized vol 7d0.57pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (60)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.