← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3208508
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.8%, up 2.1pt over 24h, on a 4.1¢ spread.
Implied probability3.8%
Bid / ask / mid3.3¢ / 7.4¢ / 5.3¢
Spread4.1¢ (76.6%)
Change 24h+2.15pt
Change 7d-1.10pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$60
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$287 / $30
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score29.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.02
RSI (14, hourly)60.4
Realized vol 7d0.34pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 55d 15h.
Time to resolve55d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.