← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3208513
Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 3.9¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.7¢ / 5.6¢ / 3.6¢
Spread3.9¢ (106.8%)
Change 24h-0.85pt
Change 7d-3.35pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$40
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$20 / $42
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.18
RSI (14, hourly)37.8
Realized vol 7d0.24pt
Change 1h-0.60pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.