← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3215007

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

21.5% implied · bid 21.0¢ · ask 22.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 22.0%, down 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability22.0%

Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (4.7%)

Change 24h-8.00pt

Change 7d-7.00pt

Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$131,144

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$410,151 / $75,910

Imbalance15% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.90

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d1.17pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 32d 11h.

Time to resolve32d 11h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules risklow (10)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.